One City That Could Signal Trump Is Winning the Election: Frank Luntz

Republican pollster and strategist Frank Luntz said Monday that a city in Michigan could signal who will win the presidential election.
Speaking to MSNBC about the shift in polling seen over the weekend, including a reportedly strong showing for Vice President Kamala Harris in Iowa, Luntz said to look to Dearborn.
Former President Donald Trump visited the city Friday to meet with Arab Americans, some of whom have been skeptical of Harris’ stance on the conflict in the Middle East.
“The group that I want to know about more than any else is Dearborn, Michigan, and whether the people in Dearborn voted,” Luntz said.
“If they have an incredibly high turnout, that’s probably good news for Harris. That probably indicates that she’s going to win the state. But if they stayed home and they refused to participate because of the issue of Israel and Gaza, that’s really significantly bad news for her, and that’s an idea that Trump could take the state,” he said.
Nasrina Bargzie, the director of Muslim and Arab American Outreach for the Harris campaign, told Newsweek: “The Vice President is committed to work to earn every vote, unite our country, and to be a President for all Americans. Throughout her career, Vice President Harris has been steadfast in her support of our country’s diverse Muslim community, including ensuring that they can live free from the hateful policies of the Trump administration.
“She will continue working to bring the war in Gaza to an end in a way where Israel is secure, the hostages are released, the suffering in Gaza ends, and the Palestinian people can realize their right to dignity, security, freedom and self-determination. She is also working to address the suffering in Lebanon and bring about a diplomatic solution and ensure de-escalation and stability in Lebanon and the region.”
Brian Hughes, a Trump campaign senior adviser, told Newsweek that the former president was the only candidate who could restore peace and stability to the Middle East, adding that “he will protect religious freedom for all Americans, as he did in his first term.”
“Kamala Harris created a broken foreign policy weakening our standing in the world,” Hughes said via email. “President Trump will fix it with his peace through strength policies.”
Dearborn sits in Wayne County, which overwhelmingly backed President Joe Biden in 2020, with 68.5 percent of the vote, against Trump’s 30.3 percent. The city sits alongside Detroit and is one of the state’s more populous areas that chose Biden overall in the last election.
Polling in Michigan has shown a tightening race between the two candidates since early October, per 548, with Harris at 48 percent and Trump at 47 percent at last count.
Luntz went on to say that where Michigan goes, Pennsylvania could likely follow. The pundit added that he would be watching Michigan’s count closely, expecting a faster result, to predict which way Pennsylvania would swing.
Harris and Trump have been targeting these two out of seven battleground states, making multiple stops over the past few months. While Michigan holds 15 vital Electoral College votes, Pennsylvania has 19.
“Of the other states, Arizona is, to me, the most significant because it had the most trouble with voter irregularities and accusations of that, which I do not accept,” Luntz said, referring to Trump’s accusations of voter fraud in areas like Maricopa County in the wake of the 2020 election.
The pundit appeared on MSNBC to discuss pollster Ann Selzer’s prediction that Harris was about 3 points ahead of Trump in Iowa, a generally safe Republican state.
Luntz said the poll was “meaningful and measurable,” adding that it could change the election’s outcome despite his skepticism about its accuracy.
“If the poll is correct, then we are in the process of seeing numerous polls potentially getting it wrong,” he said, adding that both candidates had seen strong turnouts among different voting groups but that it was still unclear who could win.
“God help us if we continue to use these small nuggets of fact to make projections that really is not called for at this point,” he said.
Update 11/4/24, 5:29 p.m. ET: This article has been updated with comment from Trump campaign.